Predictably, I’m Trying Something New

This is what Knoda looks like on a smartphone.

This is what Knoda looks like on a smartphone.

 

I’ve explained several times before that one of my reasons for starting this blog is to take advantage of the interactions that I have through social media to help motivate and hold me accountable. As readers of the blog, you are a substitute for the support system that weight loss groups such as Weight Watchers provide. In other words, I want to take advantage of the power of social media to provide the social aspects of weight loss that I believe are so important.

Today I add a new tool to my weight loss arsenal. Those of you who are my Facebook friends may remember a recent post about a website and app named Knoda. Knoda was created by a Kansas City-area startup, and allows users to make predictions about just about anything. Other users then vote on the predictions, with points awarded for those votes and predictions. It’s a great way to interact with other people in a way that is somewhat different from Facebook or Twitter. I’ve particularly enjoyed predictions about the NCAA basketball tournament–in fact, if you enjoy being in a bracket pool, you would probably enjoy Knoda.

While sports is probably the most frequent subject for Knoda predictions, it goes far beyond sports. There are predictions about economics, entertainment, politics, world events, and personal issues. That last area is why Knoda is relevant to this blog.

Dork that I am, when I first heard of Knoda, I didn’t think about the fun aspect as much as I thought about it as a tool. I saw parallels to sports betting or stock markets where individual predictions combine to determine value for propositions. I wondered Knoda could be used as a way of using crowdsourcing to draw conclusions about the world. Yes, I’m such a dork.

Nevertheless, I got into it for the fun, but always had its utility in the back of my mind. And today, I think I found a new use for it. I decided to make a prediction about my weight loss. Since one gets points for making correct predictions, I thought it might be an additional way to hold myself accountable. My prediction:

My Knoda Prediction

 

 

 

In case you can’t read that, it says, “Having lost 70 pounds over the past 15 months, I will have lost a total of at least 100 pounds by my next birthday on August 30, 2014.”

So I’m on the hook. I don’t want to lose (the prediction) but I want to lose (the weight).

What I didn’t count on was the additional encouragement that posting this prediction has provided. As of this writing, 29 people have voted on my prediction. Twenty-four of them agree with the prediction, meaning that they’re betting I will be successful. Along with those bets come the words of encouragement. I don’t want to disappoint these people.

Picking the Lent out of My Belly

For most of my life, I haven’t really observed Lent. Growing up, I know that Lent was mentioned in church, and intellectually I’ve known what Lent was, but I don’t remember behaving any differently during Lent. I knew that my Catholic friends would speak of giving up things for Lent. But I don’t remember ever being encouraged to give anything up, and so I never did until well into my adulthood.

I still don’t give up something for Lent every year, but I decided to this year. In fact, I decided to make it part of my weight loss program. In one of my earlier posts, I said that I would consider cutting back on my Diet Coke intake when I hit a plateau. That’s where I’ve been since Christmas, gaining and losing the same five pounds over and over again. While I can tie my lack of sustained progress to conscious decisions I’ve made, I thought that giving up Diet Coke might help nudge me back into a more consistent weight loss.

Of course, the post that I mentioned earlier also mentioned that I would consider getting more sleep when I hit a plateau. In fact, my sleep patterns and my Diet Coke consumption are related; one of the reasons that I drink as much Diet Coke as I do is that it is my form of caffeine. I can’t get into coffee, unless I add so much non-coffee stuff to it that it is loaded with calories, and as long as I am losing weight (or trying to), I can’t afford to consume those frappulatteccino things.

So I’m drinking much more iced tea. I like iced tea. I don’t mind drinking it at 7:30 AM on my way to work. But the bottled stuff just doesn’t taste that good to me, and sometimes the stuff I find in convenience stores is poorly brewed, or old, or just plain yucky. So there are times when I really want a Diet Coke, but I can’t have one.

I find myself thinking about how relieved I’ll be when Lent is over and I can resume drinking Diet Coke. I will probably have a very large Diet Coke (maybe several) on Easter. I will probably binge on Diet Coke. I doubt that my Diet Coke consumption patterns after Lent will differ markedly from from my pre-Lenten consumption.

Which, I realize, is similar to what often happens when people try to lose weight. It’s one of the things that many experts say that dieters should try to avoid–the feeling of deprivation. The best diet plans, in their opinions (and mine), are those that allow one to eat almost anything, but in moderation. If one feels deprived, he or she will resent the plan, which makes him or her less likely to stick with it, and more likely to binge once he or she ends the program.

I’ve seen all of that in myself. You may have noticed that the big red number that appears on the right side of this blog has not changed much from what it was before Christmas. In fact, it’s probably a bit smaller than numbers many of you have seen posted before. As my weight has gone up and down, I seem to have gotten a yo-yo for Christmas, and the few extra pounds I picked up over the holidays are a gift that I can’t seem to return.

The positive side of this is that, in some sense, it’s intentional. I’ve found a number of convenient excuses to go “off plan” for a day, or two, or three. There have been celebrations, special events, and other things that have been reasons to abandon my program. In the past, there was always a risk that I would never get back on the plan if I deviated for more than a day. But now I have the confidence that I will go back. While I’ve deviated several times over the last four months, I’ve been able to get back into sensible eating pretty quickly.

But the negative side is that these deviations are signs that I have felt deprived. I have definitely felt the effect of that sense of deprivation. It hit me hardest when I had to prep for a certain procedure that one is recommended to receive upon turning fifty. The prep involved three days with a restrictive diet, including the final day when I was restricted to clear liquids. The prep was an excellent weight loss plan while it lasted; I lost more than five pounds in those three days. But the feeling of deprivation was so strong that when that procedure was over, that I over-indulged, and gained those five pounds back in less than three days.

While this blog is about weight loss, I can’t resist the temptation to digress into a religious discussion. I’m wondering about the spiritual value of giving up something for Lent. If my feeling of deprivation causes me to think constantly and longingly about what I’m giving up, and if it leads to post-Lenten binging, what have I gained? There may be some value in making a sacrifice, but how significant is that value if it doesn’t lead to a longer lasting change in behavior?

Through it all, I manage to return to the plan. I’m still logging my food. I’m still exercising. And I’m at least maintaining my weight. But maybe cutting out the Diet Coke will jump start me. And, if so, maybe I will be able to make a reduction in my Diet Coke drinking more permanent. Stay tuned.

Chris, Bob, and Me

Some threads from this blog are coming together in some interesting ways (that may also be a description of my wardrobe).

One of my earlier posts in this blog drew parallels between my weight loss and that of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. I said at the time that I would be watching his progress and comparing it to mine.

A couple of weeks ago I posted about some insensitive comments that “Bob” made about my weight at our weekly Rotary Club meeting. I asked readers whether I should be offended by his suggestions that I needed to lose weight, in part because I thought it should have been obvious to him that I had been losing weight for the past twelve months.

Aside from their both having been described as bullies, what ties together these posts about Bob and Gov. Christie?

Although I said that I would be watching Chris Christie’s weight loss, I really haven’t given it much thought in the last few months. It came back to me while watching news coverage of what has been called “BridgeGate.” I remember turning to Kris and saying, “I wonder how his weight loss is going. It doesn’t look like he’s lost very much.” I was reminded when a friend’s Facebook post included a reference to Chris Christie’s “noted and measurable success” in losing weight. In response, I questioned whether it was noted, not having heard much media discussion about it. After posting my reply, I thought I should check to see whether I had missed discussion about his weight loss. A quick Google search for “Chris Christie weight loss progress” yielded this web site.

The pictures do show a noticeable change. It looks to me like Gov. Christie really made a lot of progress in the summer. He said in November that he is about halfway to his goal, which is what I would have said about myself then (and now). So it looks like we’re on similar paths.

Which leads me to look at the Bob incident a bit differently. A quick glance at Chris Christie did not lead to my instantly recognizing his weight loss. Maybe, just maybe, the same thing was true for Bob. While I still think his insensitivity was still inexcusable, perhaps I was wrong to be upset that he may not have recognized my weight loss.

What about Bob?

Bob (which may or may not be his real name) and I are members of the same Rotary Club. Bob is one of the older members of our club, and has cultivated a reputation for being a curmudgeon. He is not shy about sharing his opinions, and enjoys challenging others.

Bob has a regular group of friends with whom he usually sits at our weekly lunch meetings, so that other than the occasional friendly greeting, our paths really don’t cross very much. But this week Bob arrived late for the meeting. There was no space available at his usual table, so he came to sit at mine. He turned to one of his closer friends, seated next to him at our table, and said, “You know, I suggested that our club start a weight loss contest this year.”

Thinking that my 70+ pound weight loss over the last year would have made me a strong contender, I said, “I wish you would have suggested that last year!”

Bob seemed to not hear me, or to ignore what I said. He proceeded with his neighbor, in a voice loud enough for everyone at the table to hear, “And several people could benefit, including one at this table.”

There were six of us at the table. Almost everyone else was close to his or her ideal weight. There was no question that I was the person to whom he was alluding.

The conversation drifted on to other subjects. But Bob didn’t let it stray too far. He turned again to his neighbor, in the same voice, and said, “I think a nomination committee could come up with a few names.” He then listed about four or five names, with mine at the top of the list.

I didn’t react, and that ended up being the end of the discussion on the subject.

I don’t know what his motivation was for bringing up this subject. I don’t know whether he realized that I’ve been losing weight. I don’t know if he had really made this suggestion to the club leadership. I don’t know if he intended for me to hear, or for that matter, whether I was his intended primary audience. Because I didn’t know what his intentions truly were, I didn’t know whether I should have been offended.

Since I started this blog, I’ve gotten so many positive comments about my weight change that this obviously negative comment about my weight hit me hard–much harder than a similar comment would have hit before I began this weight loss. But because I didn’t know how to react, I’ll leave it up to the readers:

Should I have been offended by Bob’s comments?

Nerding Up the Weight Loss

If you needed any more proof that I’m a nerd, here it is. Times two.

I’ve been noticing a couple of patterns in my weight loss, which led me to do some data analysis. Fun, fun, fun!

The Relationship Between Post Frequency and Weight Loss

I may be the only one who has noticed this, but the frequency of my blog posts has really slowed down. In my mind, you are all keenly aware of that fact, and have been wondering why I haven’t been posting as much material lately. While deep down inside I know that most of you haven’t been that focused on my blog frequency, holding onto that thought helps sustain my weight loss, because if I think that you care that much about my blog, then I assume you also care that much about my weight loss, so it’s important to lose weight since I know you’re watching. In a nutshell, that’s what this blog is about: a way to incorporate the support of my friends and family into my weight loss program.

At the same time, my weight loss has slowed down. It appears that there is a relationship between how often I post and how well I do in my weight loss. The best way I can demonstrate this is graphically, as figure 1 shows.

Figure 1. Blog posts superimposed on weight chart, January 1 to November 30, 2013.

Figure 1. Blog posts superimposed on weight chart, January 1 to November 30, 2013.

[The graphic is small, but you can click on it to see it larger.]

On the figure, each red dot corresponds to a post I made on this blog, while the blue line corresponds to my weight over the past 11 months. Notice that the slope of the line is steepest in the first half of the year, that it actually levels off for a while, before starting to move downward again in the last month. Notice also that when the weight is coming off at its fastest rate, the red dots are bunched together and appear more frequently  (the exception being the first two weeks or so of weight loss, which happened before I started this blog), and that during the period of little or no weight loss, there are very few dots.

I think the chart demonstrates relatively clearly that my pace of weight loss and the frequency of my blog posts are correlated. But it doesn’t explain why there is a relationship: whether weight loss causes blog frequency, more frequent posts change my behavior so that I am more motivated to lose weight, or something else is causing both the rates of weight loss and blogging frequency to coincide. I suspect that the truth is a combination of all of these. When things are going well, I’m more likely to post. And when I am thinking things to post, I’m thinking about weight loss and more focused on eating right and getting plenty of exercise. And when neither weight loss nor blogging is going on, it may be because of other things in my life that get in the way of both blogging and eating healthy.

Ate Days a Week

I’ve mentioned before that I weigh myself almost every day. Recently, I thought I noticed that I was more likely to see progress on some days than on others. Naturally, I saw this as an opportunity to for data analysis.

I went to my weight loss chart and calculated the weight lost each day. Since I weigh myself when I first wake up, each day’s weight corresponds to the amount of weight lost (or gained) on the previous day. I then took all of these observations and grouped them by the day of the week so that I could calculate an average weight loss for each day of the week. The results are presented in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Average Weight Loss by Day of the Week, January 1 to November 30, 2013

Figure 2. Average Weight Loss by Day of the Week, January 1 to November 30, 2013

The figure shows that on average, I lose weight on six days of the week, but I actually average a weight gain on Saturdays. My best days are Tuesdays and Mondays, on which I average losing more than half a pound, followed closely by Fridays, when I lose nearly half a pound. My average weight loss is negligible on Sundays and Thursdays. And then there’s Saturday.

I think I have explanations for each of these. Some of them correspond to actual weight loss behavior, while a couple of them are circumstantial. For example, I think that Tuesday works best because I have a standing lunch meeting on Tuesdays, when I generally have a salad with the ranch dressing provided at our meeting place. I record the dressing as being the full fat dressing and use it accordingly, but I’ve come to believe that it is more likely a reduced fat variety. By conservatively over-estimating (there’s an oxymoron for you) the calories I consume, I end up eating less than I record for that day. Fridays are more surprising because I’m less likely to exercise on Fridays (due to another standing meeting that cuts into my exercise time), and because we’re more likely to eat out on Friday evenings. I think that the timing of my Saturday weigh-in, which comes later in the morning (since I sleep later on most Saturdays) artificially increases my weight loss on those days. That effect is reversed on Monday mornings, when my weigh-in comes usually less than 24 hours after my previous weigh-in, giving me less time to burn calories, and slightly depressing my actual Sunday weight loss reading.

Most research papers that involve data analysis end with a conclusion that wraps everything up, so I’ll do the same here. I mostly did this because it was interesting, and, in my own nerdy way, fun. My challenge is to turn it into meaningful action. I’m going to try to post more often, and I’m going to watch my behavior more closely on those problem days. If I’m successful at both, then perhaps this will be more than just a nerd having fun with numbers, it will be a new push that will help me continue to make progress.

Great New Name, Same Mediocre Content!

Earlier this week I promised you a major announcement, so here it is: I’ve changed the name of this blog!

“That’s it?” you ask, expressing the same disappointment that Ralphie from A Christmas Story did when he decoded Little Orphan Annie’s secret message, only to learn that it was “Be sure to drink your Ovaltine.”

Yes, that’s it, and it is major. Let me explain.

The change is subtle. If you scroll up to the top of this blog, you’ll see that it is now called “My Social Network Weight Loss Experience.” I changed the final word from “Experiment” to “Experience.” The reason for that change is the big  news.

When I started this blog, I wasn’t sure that it would work. As someone who has been overweight my entire life, I’ve tried losing weight numerous times. With one exception, my attempts to go it alone were largely unsuccessful. As I’ve discussed many times, I tried Weight Watchers about seven years ago and was very successful, having lost 80.8 pounds. I discovered on Weight Watchers that the accountability and support that being part of a group brings were crucial to weight loss success. When I finally committed to losing weight again, I didn’t want to deal with the expense, travel, and weekly meeting time commitment that came with Weight Watchers, so I started this blog as a substitute for the group accountability and support I got from Weight Watchers. But, not knowing whether it would work, I labeled it an “experiment.”

I now have enough information to know that the experiment was successful. As of this morning, I have lost 81.2 pounds–more weight than I lost on Weight Watchers. This is now my most successful weight loss ever. I still weigh more than I did at my lowest point on Weight Watchers, since I started as a heavier weight, but even that mark is now within sight. And perhaps the greatest accomplishment is that I actually lost weight on Thanksgiving and its immediate aftermath.

Danger! Holidays Ahead!

As we enter the holiday season, I’m on the verge of an important milestone, and with that milestone will come a MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT. You’ll have to wait for that. I hope you won’t have to wait very long, but my situation right now is very fra-jee-lay.

Let me first say that on this Thanksgiving morning, I’m very thankful for you, the readers of this blog. I started this blog to create an online support group, since I chose to lose weight on my own and not part of a group program like Weight Watchers. Knowing that you are out there reading what I write, following my progress, and complimenting me on my appearance and achievements helps to sustain me (your comments aren’t necessary, but appreciated). You have helped to hold me accountable, and are at least partly responsible for the success that I’ve had to date. For that, I’m very thankful.

I’m also thankful that I have a family that is supporting me on this journey. Whether it has been willingly eating the lighter meals I’ve been preparing, altering their plans for eating out so that we can go somewhere where I can eat something on my plan, encouraging me, helping me celebrate milestones, and even pushing me to exercise, I cannot ask for a more supportive family. They, too, share the credit for my success. I know that’s not the case with the families of everyone who tries to lose weight, as has been apparent on some of those weight loss TV programs I’ve blogged about, so I am thankful that I have my family’s complete support.

In a couple of hours we will head out for a family gathering for Thanksgiving, and my season of challenges will begin. I’m going to attempt the nearly impossible: continue losing weight during the holiday season. The obstacles are many: Thanksgiving dinner, holiday parties, the omnipresent popcorn tins, peanut brittle (lots and lots of peanut brittle), cookies, and candy lurking around every corner.

I was in Weight Watchers for at least two Decembers. Each time, our leaders would tell us that they knew we weren’t going to be completely faithful in following the program during the month, so our goal should be to maintain our weight. That may be what’s realistic for me, as well. However, knowing that I’m on the verge of a couple of milestones I’ve been hoping to hit may help me make progress.